I am seriously skeptic about JavaFX. I had earlier burned my hands by putting a big effort in SWING applications. I had developed first an IDE, which was quite ok as it was targeted at developer community. But when I developed a consumer p2p application with SWING, the application had serious performance issues. After a long while came SWT from IBM and there have been some successful apps based on Java/SWT for desktops. It took quite a long time for Desktop Java to reach the usability stage.
I had later ventured in J2ME. First for Games and then mobile information streaming. It was obvious to every serious developer in the J2ME domain that Flash/Scalable Vector Graphics is the way to go in mobile computing because mobile devices had non-standard screensizes and the only way to get write once run anywhere apps at least in mobiles was to go the Flash way.
SUN has taken so long to realize this. And the time of announcement is also bad as it immediately follows Microsoft Silverlight Announcement. It is going to take such as long time for JavaFX to be delivered that it would be dead on arrival.
It is not Flash/Silverlight that is going to kill JavaFX but Ajax/browsers. iPhone is not even going to include Java. All third party apps have to be through browser. Other manufacturers might also follow suit. While there is still some value proposition for JavaFX, SUN might have to deliver it right the first time itself, but History is not favourable to JavaFX.
Interestingly, if SUN is also adopting a scripting language to achieve write once run anywhere, then it is not Java which is going to fulfill this promise but JavaScript as it would be the basis for browser apps.
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